By Tijani & Co Insights
Private capital is showing clearer signs of recovery. But the recovery is not broad-based, and that distinction matters. Recent market research points to stronger deal activity and improved exits, while fundraising remains more difficult and increasingly concentrated around managers with stronger track records, clearer strategies, and better evidence of distributions.
That is the defining feature of the market today: activity is returning, but capital is moving with greater discipline. For counterparties, operators, and investors, the practical question is no longer simply whether capital is available. It is where conviction is strongest, where underwriting is more disciplined, and where execution can still support attractive outcomes. This is Tijani & Co’s interpretation of the market signals below.
What has changed
Bain reported that private equity regained some traction in 2024, with investments and exits reversing their two-year declines, while fundraising lagged as limited partners kept allocations in check amid prolonged holding periods. Bain also noted that, when capital does begin to flow more freely again, funds with a clear, differentiated strategy and a record of consistent performance are likely to be best placed.
EY’s Q4 2025 Private Equity Pulse points to a stronger rebound in 2025. According to EY, global private-equity deal values rose 57% in 2025, while exit values increased by more than 50%. Strategic buyers became more active, and secondaries continued to play a central role in the exit market. At the same time, EY reported that fundraising fell by approximately 22% year on year, that funds closed at an average 19% discount to target, and that large, established managers with strong track records and clear sector focus remained better able to raise capital than others.
McKinsey’s Global Private Markets Report 2026 adds a further layer to that picture. McKinsey notes that the private-equity environment has become more technical and more demanding, with purchase multiples rising from 11.3x EBITDA in 2024 to 11.8x in 2025. McKinsey also estimates that more than 16,000 portfolio companies globally have been held for more than four years, representing 52% of total buyout-backed inventory in 2025, while the average holding period has risen to more than six and a half years. In addition, more than 40% of available dry powder has already been sitting for at least two years.
Why this matters
Taken together, these developments suggest that private capital is becoming more selective, not less active. Dealmaking and exits have improved, but the market is still carrying longer holding periods, older dry powder, expensive assets, and tighter fundraising conditions. In that environment, capital is likely to favour managers and opportunities where strategy is clear, sector understanding is credible, and the path from investment to value realisation is easier to explain. This is an interpretation of the cited market research, not a prediction.
This also helps explain why manager quality matters more now. EY’s findings suggest fundraising remains bifurcated. Bain’s findings suggest LPs are still cautious. McKinsey’s analysis suggests the industry is adapting to structural rather than temporary pressures. Taken together, that implies a market in which selectivity is no longer a cyclical feature. It is becoming part of the operating model.
Where attention is likely to concentrate
Attention is likely to remain concentrated around a few areas.
Differentiated managers are likely to continue attracting capital more easily where they can show a clear strategy, stronger distributions, and a credible record of execution. Bain and EY both point in this direction.
Exit-ready assets are likely to matter more as sponsors continue to prioritise liquidity and portfolio turnover. EY reported stronger strategic sales and a larger role for secondaries, while McKinsey highlighted the continued backlog of older assets still on the books.
Operational value creation is also likely to remain central. EY reported that many general partners expect deals completed in 2025 to outperform those signed in earlier years because of more disciplined entry pricing, conservative capital structures, and renewed focus on operational value creation.
The Tijani & Co view
The most useful way to read private capital today is not as a simple rebound story. It is as a market where momentum has returned, but capital is being allocated more carefully. Recovery in activity is real. So is the pressure for stronger underwriting, better exits, clearer manager differentiation, and more disciplined execution.
For businesses, principals, and counterparties assessing this environment, that means the quality of the opportunity now matters more than the quantity of capital in the system. It also means that clarity of strategy, commercial positioning, and execution capability are likely to carry more weight in discussions around capital, partnerships, and long-term value creation. This is Tijani & Co’s interpretation of the market evidence cited above.
Tijani & Co welcomes confidential enquiries from parties assessing strategic relationships, market access, and commercial opportunities across the evolving private-capital landscape.
TL;DR
Private capital activity is recovering, but the market is becoming more selective. Bain points to a recovery in investments and exits, while EY reports stronger deal and exit values in 2025. At the same time, fundraising remains harder, fund closes are still below target on average, and capital is concentrating around managers with stronger track records and clearer strategies. McKinsey adds that holding periods remain elevated, dry powder is ageing, and asset pricing is still demanding.
The practical takeaway is simple: activity is returning, but discipline matters more. Confidential enquiries are welcomed.
About this insight
This article reflects Tijani & Co’s view based on publicly available market research at the time of publication.
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